Josh Levinger

Well, Barack gave an inspiring speech about hope, and the future and blah blah blah. I wish I was there for this.

Nothing like a group of angry masked liberals shouting obscenities at Fox News. Do you not believe in freedom? Although, with the preemptive arrests at the RNC, it looks like that was the place to be this year. I do love a good riot peaceful demonstration. Time to get out my gas mask and my black bandana.

Went to an Obama rally last night, trying to find out if he’s really all that. Waited in the mile long line for three hours with Ruth Miller, my former editor at the Tech, and now my neighbor in the office park. The line was something to behold, full of middle school girls, old fogies, and more sober college students than should ever be in one place. Volunteers tried to get us to call prospective voters, but I demurred, having done that for MoveOn before, and knowing how painful it is. Lyndon Larouche supporters were out, spouting their nonsense about the hyperinflationary shock wave, and nattering on about the Weimar Republic. While I am concerned about our current accounts deficit, I am less than convinced that Larouche is the guy to fix it. Call me when we’re burning dollars for heat, and we’ll talk.

When finally allowed inside, we got a tiny slice of a view, but were able to hear rousing speeches by democratic luminaries such as: the mayor of Lynn, some Asian woman I had never heard of, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, and that dynamic, fresh faced phenomenon, Ted Kennedy. Kerry stank up the place, and there were some heckles from the back about his particular track record on presidential elections. Obama took the stage at around eleven, and gave a speech he probably has given hundreds of times before. It’s a pretty standard stump speech about new politics, and change, and all that good stuff. Still, he managed to be engaging, because he is one charismatic sonofabitch.

Found some good pictures by flickr user Kori Leigh. I was nowhere near this close.

***
Post ur-Tuesday update:
Looks like he’s still in it, so I’m pretty psyched. Note that most of his wins were in non-coastal, less traditionally blue states. This bodes well for general electability. It’s also interesting that the division between Clinton and Obama voters appears to be class, not race. It remains to be seen if he can adopt the Edwards message and really reach out to poor voters. Of course, his experience as a community organizer is relevant.

I also read this essay by Robin Morgan, which is a pretty compelling feminist call for Hillary, and am implicit critique of Obama. While I do find it compelling, I still think that Hillary brings out the worst of the Democratic Party, embodying all of the Clinton triangulation with none of her husband’s charisma. On a purely policy level, she just doesn’t offer enough of a counterpoint to McCain to have a chance in November. Sorry ladies, but I don’t think it’s your year.

Four years after entering the Second World War, the United States and her allies had responded to an existential threat by defeating the enemy on two fronts on opposite sides of the world. Four years after preemptively declaring war on Iraq, we are still mired in a conflict that has taken 3,211 American lives and those of at least 60,000 innocent Iraqi civilians. While the initial military defeat of the Iraqi army was relatively well-executed, there was a total lack of planning for the reconstruction of a functioning society. Senior Defense Department management expressed utter disdain for State Department plans to rebuild Iraq, and many of the problems faced today can be directly traced to the inept decision-making in the first days of the conflict. With this kind of track record, we must not allow President Bush to expand the war to Iran.

Today, American troops are fighting in the middle of a civil war, unable to prevent attacks on civilians, their very presence increasing the violence. We have lost in Iraq; there is no hope of the ‘surge’ working. The influence of an extra 21,500 troops will do little to secure Baghdad’s population of 4.5 million, particularly when sectarian elements are determined to kill each other. Estimates by retired General Jack Keane and Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute put the troop strength required to fully pacify Baghdad at 30,000 troops for 18 months. While the recently installed General David Petraeus claims the surge is working, in the last weeks there has been a chlorine bomb attack in Fallujah that injured 350 and killed eight, a suicide bombing at a college that killed 45 students and staff, and at least 113 bodies found tortured and executed in the Baghdad area.

I do not list these statistics to shock, merely to demonstrate the magnitude of the violence and the challenge posed to our forces. Until recently I argued against withdrawal, feeling that we owe it to the Iraqi people, having unleashed this violence, to do our best to contain it. But the continued slaughter, compounded by the anger at the indefinite length of our presence, leads me to believe that the best course of action is to bring our troops home. The forces at work in the region: the ancient religious hatred, the militias armed with weapons we did not secure in the invasion, and the seemingly endless supply of young men and women willing to blow themselves up in a crowd, all conspire to make our overwhelming military might completely ineffectual. This is not to disparage the efforts of our troops, only the politicians who sent them in harm’s way without sufficient armor, planning, or historical insight to make victory achievable.

In the midst of the current conflict, the Bush administration seems to be invested in provoking Iran into a war. It has publicly accused Iranian agents of supplying Shia militias with the expertise and material for roadside bombs, and has deployed the USS Stennis Carrier Battle Group to the Persian Gulf. Alongside the USS Eisenhower, there is now enough firepower in the area to maintain 24-hour aircraft operations, a capability unprecedented since the beginning of the Iraq war, and a clear warning signal to Iran. While the new Secretary of Defense Robert Gates claims that we ‘are not looking for an excuse to go to war with Iran’, the White House maintains, as ever, that ‘all options are on the table’ to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Neoconservative author Andrew Roberts recently cautioned President Bush that his legacy will depend on whether he prevents the nuclearization of the Middle East. According to press accounts, Bush frowned and nodded gravely.

Four years after we began this war, we have little progress and much chaos to show for our enormous cost in blood and treasure. We cannot let President Bush maneuver us into another war of choice based on exaggerated evidence. Given the level of competence displayed in the pre- and post-war planning, it is lunacy to expect that we can salvage our current situation by doubling down and going to war with Iran. Any decent poker player, of which there are many here at MIT, knows that this strategy leads straight to ruin. Playing no-limit with the lives of our soldiers and innocent civilians isn’t just bad policy, it’s immoral. And a President who believes he is accountable only to God should take that to heart.

–

Published in the March 20th issue of The Tech

I spent the morning reading up on a current Supreme Court case, Frederick v. Morse, in which a high school student in Juneau, AK, was suspended for displaying a sign with that cogent message at a school-sponsored viewing of the Olympic torch relay in 2002. Interesting case, not only because that phrase might make even Scalia smirk, but because it’s a pretty clear free speech violation by the principal. The student was 18, on private property, and school was not in session. It’s hard to spin a corporate sponsored torch relay as an educational event. And because of Alaska’s enlightened marijuana laws, the poster might also be taken as political discourse, which is entirely accepted under the Tingle precedent where students wore black armbands to protest the Vietnam war. In the student’s own admission, he only wrote the sign to get on television, but he has fought the good fight all the way to the top. Can’t wait to read the transcript on this one, it’s perfect for a drinking/smoking game. Bong hits 4 everyone!

For the first time in my political memory, the day after an election doesn’t feel like a funeral. We had high hopes, and they were acheieved. We’ll have to wait for Virginia, but just having Speaker Nancy is a step in the right direction. In honor of this auspicious day, please enjoy some poetry from the *Former* Secretary of Defense himself, Donald Rumsfeld. Stolen from Hart Seely, slate.com

The Unknown

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.
- Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

A Confession

Once in a while,
I'm standing here, doing something.
And I think,
"What in the world am I doing here?"
It's a big surprise.
- May 16, 2001 , interview with the New York Times

Clarity

I think what you'll find,
I think what you'll find is,
Whatever it is we do substantively,
There will be near-perfect clarity
As to what it is. 

And it will be known,
And it will be known to the Congress,
And it will be known to you,
Probably before we decide it,
But it will be known.
- Feb. 28, 2003, Department of Defense briefing

Courtesy of David Rees’ Get Your War On

In one month, the future of the country will once again be up for grabs. And while legislative control is not as exciting as the presidency, it’s still the duty of every citizen to pay attention. If you feel like the world is going to hell in a handbasket, here’s your opportunity to demand that we pull over and ask for directions.

Here’s a quick recap for those who haven’t been keeping score: Iraq is devolving into a civil war. The CIA has revealed that Iraq has become a fertile jihadist recruiting ground. The Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan. One of the fundamental tenets of Western law, habeas corpus, the right of the imprisoned to challenge their detainment in a court of law, has been suspended for aliens classified as enemy combatants or awaiting classification. This essentially allows the President to detain anyone, anywhere in the world, and hold them indefinitely without trial, forever. The Geneva Convention prohibition against “outrages upon personal dignity” against prisoners of war has been stripped from unlawful enemy combatants and those who have “purposefully and materially supported hostilities against the United States” or its allies.

Don’t think this applies to you, because you’re a law abiding citizen who has nothing to hide? Better to fight them over there than over here? Remember that the steady erosion of rights always starts with someone else. It’s not so bad when it’s a suspected terrorist being held in a cell, tortured until he confesses. But when the United States drops all pretense of being the land of the free, we all suffer. It puts our fighting men and women in further danger if they are captured, and it foments international anger. It’s bad enough that the Middle Eastern street thinks that America is the great Satan, we don’t need to confirm it for them. If we’re really in a great clash of civilizations, shouldn’t we show our enemy what we really stand for?

On the home front, things aren’t much better. Yes, gas prices have fallen significantly over the last month, and the Dow is back near its historic high. But the Federal debt is over $8.5 trillion. That’s $28,541 per citizen, even more to add to your college payments. Foreign central banks have begun selling their shares of our debt, getting out of a bad investment before it gets worse. New proposed air pollution standards lower restrictions on particulates. New historical climate data reinforces the scientific consensus on global climate change. Senator Mark Foley sent explicit emails and instant messages to a sixteen year old page, and Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert knew for years.

I’m assigning everyone homework. Think of it as a one unit course for the next month. First, read a real newspaper. If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention. Find out if your senator is up for reelection, and look at their platform and that of their opponent. Then decide who you want to run the country. And maybe look at your local house race. Register to vote in your home district with the National Mail Voter Registration form. Request an absentee ballot; links to every state election office are available.

It is critical that you participate this year. In 2002, the Republicans parlayed their midterm victory into a mandate for total governance. Remind everyone in power that a slim margin of victory is not a writ for dominance by either side, but a reminder that there are two sides to this debate. It’s your country too; fight for it.

–

Published in the October 13 Tech

Less than a year ago, Vice President Cheney remarked that the Iraqi insurgency was in its “last throes.” He may have been right. In the intervening months, the conflict there has transformed from mere random violence to the brink of a full-blown civil war. What happens when Iraq passes the tipping point? Whose side will we be on in the impending conflict? Or will we “cut and run”, leaving a bigger mess than we found?

The trigger for the recent violence was the bombing of the Shiite shrine at Samarra on February 22nd. This attack, presumably carried out by Sunnis trying to foment sectarian violence, lead to days of protests and riots that killed over 200 civilians. Reprisal killings of journalists, professionals, and government officials have claimed at least 1,000 in the last two months. These are throes all right, but far from the last.

A generally accepted social science definition of civil war is: “Sustained military combat, primarily internal, resulting in at least 1,000 battle-deaths per year, pitting central government forces against an insurgent force capable of effective resistance…” (Henderson and Singer, “Civil War in the Post-Colonial World, 1946-92,” Journal of Peace Research, May 2000). Iraq fits every clause of this definition. While there are foreign fighters, the majority of the violence is perpetrated by Iraqis against Iraqis. We cannot blame this violence on Iran, or Syria, or al-Qaeda, only ourselves. Prime Minister Iyad Allawi notes that “We are losing each day as an average 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more.” This is a significant increase over the baseline rate of about 30 Iraqi military casualties per day during 2004 (Department of Defense, “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,” 17 February 2006, p27). The insurgent force is clearly capable of offensive actions against the government, and they have infiltrated the Iraqi security apparatus so thoroughly that they are often aware of American counter-attacks as soon as the order is issued to move.

Why is the Bush administration trying so hard to maintain the aura of control over this rapidly disintegrating situation? Because the moment it becomes clear that this is indeed a civil war, our mission to promote democracy becomes null and void. When democracy fails to take root, and protracted sectarian violence takes hold, American and allied public support for an winnable war will plummet. Spending blood and treasure to fight a civil war is not quite the mission we signed up for.

Sadly, because we started this conflagration, we bear the responsibility for what happens when, not if, we leave. While a permanent American presence in Iraq is being built and planned for, it is not our long term goal to patrol the streets. A friendly Iraq was supposed to be a check against Iran, and a beacon of liberty in a region darkened by autocracy. An Iraq mired in civil war doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the righteousness of the American way.

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell stated this dilemma as the “Pottery Barn Rule”: You break it, you buy it. We certainly broke this vase, but do we have the skill or ? In the coming Iraqi civil war, whose side will we be on? We have placed our faith so far in the Shia, but do we dare trust the young rebel cleric Moqtada al-Sadr? His Mahdi Army was responsible for the uprisings of August 2004 and our subsequent siege of Fallujah. Or perhaps the ruling Sciri party (Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution In Iraq), which was founded in the intellectual heritage of Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979. This is the party of the current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who is currently in the process of being forced out by Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. Under his leadership, the Parliament has failed to form a government for the last three months. Remember that election in Janurary? They still haven’t actually formed a coalition. Could we back the Kurds, who we helped save from Saddam with our Northern No-Fly Zone during the inter-war containment? But they are now self sufficient, with their own private army, the Pershmerga. If they can control Kirkuk, and its oil wealth, they have no need for a united Federal Iraq. An independent Kurdistan would infuriate the Turks, who continue to repress their eastern Kurdish minority.

Clearly none of our putative allies are convincing champions of democracy, and we have no horse to back in this race. Even if you’re not up on your Iraqi politics, there’s no denying that the situation looks abysmal. Every ethnic group has their own agenda, and none are entirely friendly to the United States. Even if we were to choose a side, no one wants to be on ours.

As Iraq slowly crumbles, we will continue to pass the buck. In the eyes of the Bush administration, it’s the Iraqi’s fault that they couldn’t create a modern society out of the wreckage Saddam left them. Never mind that we never gave them the security or the support they needed, or that the one crucial decision of disbanding the Iraqi army essentially created the insurgency.

Leaving Iraq in a civil war will have profound repercussions in the region, none of them good. Iran may exert it’s influence more directly, creating another state ruled by sharia. Turkey may invade to stop the creation of a Kurdish state. And Israel won’t be happy about yet another unfriendly pocket of violence in their neighborhood.

We have failed the Iraqi people. When we pull out and leave them with a country in pieces, perhaps even worse than before the our ill-planned invasion, we will have only ourselves to blame.

–

Published in the April 7, 2006 edition of The Tech.